Belgium leads with 58% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

Match insights

New Zealand head into this in World Cup fixture at BC Place in mixed form (LLD), while Belgium arrive in strong form (LWWWD). New Zealand have a 0% win rate across their last 3 matches, compared to 50% for Belgium over 6 games.

Tactically, Belgium hold the edge. Their elite attack (83/100) is pitted against a vulnerable New Zealand defence (4/100), while New Zealand's attack faces a solid Belgium backline. The model flags this as a potential away-team performance.

New Zealand have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 2 home games. They average 1.0 goals scored and 4.0 conceded per home match. Belgium have won 2 of their last 3 away fixtures, averaging 3.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per away game.

New Zealand have generated 0.34 xG per game recently while conceding 1.39 xG per match. Belgium have generated 1.93 xG per game recently while conceding 1.35 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 80% of recent matches.

Belgium have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 6.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Belgium to win with 58% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 0-2. Win probabilities: New Zealand 2016%, Draw 2145%, Belgium 5839%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Recent form

New Zealand

L

vs Belgium

27 Jun 2026

1–5

xG 0.2

L

vs Egypt

22 Jun 2026

1–3

xG 1.1

D

@ Iran

16 Jun 2026

2–2

L

@ Ecuador

19 Nov 2025

0–2

xG 0.0

L

@ Colombia

16 Nov 2025

1–2

xG 0.0

Belgium

L

@ Spain

10 Jul 2026

1–2

xG 0.4

W

@ USA

7 Jul 2026

4–1

xG 2.1

W

vs Senegal

1 Jul 2026

3–2

xG 1.8

W

@ New Zealand

27 Jun 2026

5–1

xG 3.6

D

vs Iran

21 Jun 2026

0–0

xG 1.8

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