New York Red Bullsvs
Toronto FC
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/17/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New York Red Bulls · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
New York Red Bulls 0-2 Toronto FC
Original prediction
New York Red Bulls
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 51.5% | 44.3% | -7.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.16 | 22.7% | 21.0% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.67 | 25.7% | 34.7% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
New York Red Bulls
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
New York Red Bulls has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40