New York Red Bullsvs
St. Louis City
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/30/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
St. Louis City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
New York Red Bulls 0-3 St. Louis City
Original prediction
St. Louis City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.48 | 26.9% | 28.8% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.04 | 23.2% | 26.9% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 1.88 | 49.9% | 44.4% | -5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.88 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
St. Louis City
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
St. Louis City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20