New York City IIvs
Connecticut FC
COMPLETEDUSA · MLS Next Pro · 9/13/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New York City II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 3-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
New York City II 1-0 Connecticut FC
Original prediction
New York City II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.54 | 35.5% | 41.0% | 5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 23.4% | 23.8% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.19 | 41.1% | 35.2% | -6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.3–26%
Predicted outcome
New York City II
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
New York City II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80
GF 12 · GA 12 · avg 2.40/2.40