New York City FCvs
St. Louis City
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 4/4/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New York City FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
New York City FC are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWD), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while St. Louis City are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and New York City FC hold a 2.9-point power-rating edge (54.0 v 51.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.8% in the Major League Soccer, while New York City FC holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
New York City FC
Probability
49.4%
Model confidence
12.8%
New York City FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40