New York City FCvs
New York Red Bulls
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/18/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New York City FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
New York City FC 0-1 New York Red Bulls
Original prediction
New York City FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 51.9% | 61.3% | 9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 23.6% | 19.8% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 3.84 | 24.5% | 19.0% | -5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
New York City FC
Probability
61.3%
Model confidence
61.3%
New York City FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20