Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer
Saturday, 25 July 2026Last updated 10:14
New York City FC

New York City FC

Home
DW
31
Full time
Chicago Fire

Chicago Fire

Away
W
Yankee Stadium
GoalVio prediction
50% confidence
New York City FC(50%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
New York City FC
50%
Draw
22%
Chicago Fire
28%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
New York City FC
34
Chicago Fire
94
Defence
New York City FC
82
Chicago Fire
66
Momentum
New York City FC
67
Chicago Fire
100
Danger (xG)
New York City FC
0.90
Chicago Fire
2.70
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (New York City FC)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Chicago Fire)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (New York City FC)
0.45
avg per match
xG against (Chicago Fire)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
New York City FCNew York City FC
DW
Chicago FireChicago Fire
W

Probability breakdown

50% confidence
New York City FC50%
Draw22%
Chicago Fire28%

New York City FC leads with 50% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

New York City FC head into this in Major League Soccer fixture at Yankee Stadium in mixed form (DW), while Chicago Fire arrive in mixed form (W). New York City FC have a 50% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 100% for Chicago Fire over 1 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — New York City FC (82/100) and Chicago Fire (66/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

New York City FC have limited home data in the engine at this stage. Chicago Fire have been excellent on the road, winning all 1 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between New York City FC and Chicago Fire in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects New York City FC to win with 50% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: New York City FC 4980%, Draw 2215%, Chicago Fire 2805%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

New York City FC

New York City FC

D
@ New York Red Bulls
17 May 2026
11
W
@ Charlotte
14 May 2026
10
Chicago Fire

Chicago Fire

W
@ DC United
14 May 2026
31

Frequently asked questions

Who will win New York City FC vs Chicago Fire?

GoalVio's model predicts New York City FC to win with 50% confidence.

What is the predicted score for New York City FC vs Chicago Fire?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in New York City FC vs Chicago Fire?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in New York City FC vs Chicago Fire?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more