Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
New Town are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWDW), averaging 3.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Taroona are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLW), averaging 3.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and New Town hold an 8.0-point power-rating edge (71.0 v 63.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 7.0% in the Tasmania Southern Championship, while New Town holds the strongest overall chance at 60% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 83% BTTS chance and 89% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
New Town
Probability
60.4%
Model confidence
7.0%
New Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00
GF 16 · GA 9 · avg 3.20/1.80