New Mexico Unitedvs
Sacramento Republic
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/27/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: New Mexico United 0-0 Sacramento Republic, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
New Mexico United 2-3 Sacramento Republic
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.35 | 27.2% | 33.6% | 6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.6% | 30.4% | 3.8 pts |
| Away | 1.97 | 46.2% | 36.0% | -10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Projected Score
New Mexico United 0–0 Sacramento Republic
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.4%
Model confidence
36.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80