New Mexico Unitedvs
Phoenix Rising
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 10/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New Mexico United · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
New Mexico United 2-1 Phoenix Rising
Original prediction
New Mexico United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.20 | 41.8% | 46.4% | 4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 25.0% | 26.1% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.76 | 33.3% | 27.5% | -5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
New Mexico United
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
New Mexico United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80