New Mexico Unitedvs
Monterey Bay
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 10/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New Mexico United · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
New Mexico United 3-1 Monterey Bay
Original prediction
New Mexico United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 13:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 57.2% | 57.9% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.10 | 22.3% | 23.1% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 4.45 | 20.5% | 19.0% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
New Mexico United
Probability
57.9%
Model confidence
57.9%
New Mexico United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40