New Mexico Unitedvs
Lexington
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 8/27/2026, 1:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New Mexico United · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
New Mexico United 2-1 Lexington
Original prediction
New Mexico United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.56 | 35.6% | 43.8% | 8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.5% | 27.3% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.47 | 36.9% | 28.9% | -8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
New Mexico United
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
New Mexico United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60