New Mexico Unitedvs
Indy Eleven
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/12/2026, 1:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New Mexico United · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: New Mexico United 1-0 Indy Eleven, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
New Mexico United 2-2 Indy Eleven
Original prediction
New Mexico United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 43.8% | 49.8% | 6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 24.8% | 26.2% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.90 | 31.4% | 24.0% | -7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.68 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.0 pts
Projected Score
New Mexico United 1–0 Indy Eleven
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
New Mexico United
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
New Mexico United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20