GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 5/7/2026, 1:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

New Mexico United · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

New Mexico United are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while El Paso Locomotive are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and New Mexico United hold a 9.2-point power-rating edge (61.2 v 52.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.4% in the USL Championship, while New Mexico United holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

New Mexico United

Probability

49.4%

Model confidence

49.4%

New Mexico United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

New Mexico UnitedWLWWL

GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
El Paso LocomotiveLWLWW

GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
New Mexico UnitedEl Paso Locomotive
52.1Attack50.9
64.6Defence52.6
62.5Form49.1
61.2Power52.0
1.63xG0.96
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