Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nevėžis · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Nevėžis are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Dainava are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DLLDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Nevėžis hold a 23.3-point power-rating edge (47.0 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.8% in the Cup, while Nevėžis holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 81% BTTS chance and 84% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Nevėžis
Probability
47.8%
Model confidence
47.8%
Nevėžis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80