Neuchatel Xamax FCvs
FC Winterthur
COMPLETEDSwitzerland · Challenge League · 10/9/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Winterthur · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Neuchatel Xamax FC 3-0 FC Winterthur
Original prediction
FC Winterthur
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.01 | 30.3% | 17.5% | -12.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 24.6% | 19.4% | -5.2 pts |
| Away | 2.02 | 45.1% | 63.1% | 18.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–39%
Predicted outcome
FC Winterthur
Probability
63.1%
Model confidence
63.1%
FC Winterthur has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
GF 18 · GA 5 · avg 3.60/1.00