World Cup
Netherlands
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Netherlands leads with 47% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Match insights
Netherlands head into this in World Cup fixture at NRG Stadium in decent form (DWWD), while Sweden arrive in mixed form (LDLW). Netherlands have a 50% win rate across their last 4 matches, compared to 25% for Sweden over 4 games.
The model rates Netherlands's attack at 90/100 against a 14/100 Sweden defence, and Sweden's attack at 64/100 against a 56/100 Netherlands backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.
Netherlands have won 1 of their last 3 home fixtures, averaging 2.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game at home. Sweden have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 3 away matches. They average 0.7 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per away game.
Netherlands have generated 1.35 xG per game recently while conceding 1.17 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches. Sweden have generated 0.75 xG per game recently while conceding 2.82 xG per match.
Netherlands have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 6.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.
The GoalVio engine projects Netherlands to win with 45% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Netherlands 4680%, Draw 2430%, Sweden 2890%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.
Head to head
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Frequently asked questions
Who will win Netherlands vs Sweden?
GoalVio's model predicts Netherlands to win with 45% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Netherlands vs Sweden?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.
Will both teams score in Netherlands vs Sweden?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Netherlands vs Sweden?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.