Netherlandsvs
Serbia
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 10/4/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Netherlands · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Netherlands 2-1 Serbia
Original prediction
Netherlands
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.19 | 79.6% | 58.3% | -21.3 pts |
| Draw | 7.23 | 13.1% | 22.5% | 9.3 pts |
| Away | 13.12 | 7.2% | 19.2% | 12.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Netherlands
Probability
58.3%
Model confidence
58.3%
Netherlands has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.60/2.80