Netherlandsvs
Germany
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 9/24/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Germany · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Netherlands 1-1 Germany
Original prediction
Germany
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.59 | 36.6% | 33.6% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 25.5% | 23.5% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.51 | 37.9% | 42.9% | 5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.73 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Germany
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Germany has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40