Nestos Chrisoupolisvs
AEK Athens FC
COMPLETEDGreece · Cup · 9/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AEK Athens FC · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nestos Chrisoupolis 0-2 AEK Athens FC
Original prediction
AEK Athens FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 17.80 | 5.2% | 33.3% | 28.1 pts |
| Draw | 7.78 | 11.8% | 23.8% | 12.0 pts |
| Away | 1.11 | 83.0% | 42.9% | -40.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-40.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
AEK Athens FC
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
AEK Athens FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 1 · avg 0.50/0.50
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60