Nesebarvs
Rilski Sportist
COMPLETEDBulgaria · Second League · 9/6/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nesebar · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nesebar 2-1 Rilski Sportist
Original prediction
Nesebar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.94 | 46.2% | 45.6% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.0% | 27.6% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.62 | 24.8% | 26.8% | 1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.94 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Nesebar
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Nesebar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00