Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nesebar · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nesebar 4-3 Beroe
Original prediction
Nesebar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.74 | 32.7% | 36.5% | 3.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.91 | 30.8% | 27.9% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.45 | 36.5% | 35.6% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Nesebar
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Nesebar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NesebarDWLDW
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BeroeWDDDW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
NesebarBeroe
59.3Attack44.4
55.6Defence70.4
51.9Form55.6
53.7Power58.1
1.14xG1.09