Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NEOM · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: NEOM 1-0 Al-Fateh, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
NEOM 4-2 Al-Fateh
Original prediction
NEOM
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 56.1% | 55.7% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 23.7% | 25.1% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 4.50 | 20.2% | 19.3% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Projected Score
NEOM 1–0 Al-Fateh
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
NEOM
Probability
55.7%
Model confidence
55.7%
NEOM has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NEOMWWLLW
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Al-FatehLDDDL
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
NEOMAl-Fateh
50.0Attack11.1
77.8Defence61.1
66.7Form16.7
65.1Power32.6
1.54xG0.65