Nelson Suburbsvs
Northern AFC
COMPLETEDNew-Zealand · Chatham Cup · 7/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nelson Suburbs · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
Nelson Suburbs are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Northern AFC are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 4.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Nelson Suburbs hold a 56.5-point power-rating edge (63.5 v 7.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 8.2% in the Chatham Cup, while Nelson Suburbs holds the strongest overall chance at 67% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 76% BTTS chance and 84% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Nelson Suburbs
Probability
66.5%
Model confidence
8.2%
Nelson Suburbs has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 23 · GA 9 · avg 4.60/1.80