Negelle Arsivs
Adama Kenema
COMPLETEDEthiopia · Premier League · 10/26/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Negelle Arsi · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Negelle Arsi 0-0 Adama Kenema, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Negelle Arsi 1-0 Adama Kenema
Original prediction
Negelle Arsi
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 22:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.44 | 37.0% | 39.7% | 2.7 pts |
| Draw | 2.62 | 34.5% | 32.5% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 3.17 | 28.5% | 27.9% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Projected Score
Negelle Arsi 0–0 Adama Kenema
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Negelle Arsi
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Negelle Arsi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60