Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Neftchi 2-0 Xorazm, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Neftchi 2-2 Xorazm
Original prediction
Neftchi
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 18:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.17 | 77.7% | 76.0% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 6.31 | 14.4% | 15.2% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 11.64 | 7.8% | 8.8% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 5.31 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Projected Score
Neftchi 2–0 Xorazm
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Neftchi
Probability
76.0%
Model confidence
76.0%
Neftchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NeftchiWWWLW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
XorazmLLDLL
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NeftchiXorazm
75.8Attack27.3
74.2Defence51.5
77.3Form31.8
74.0Power39.6
2.58xG0.35