Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Neftchi 2-0 Surkhon, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Neftchi 2-1 Surkhon
Original prediction
Neftchi
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 71.4% | 75.5% | 4.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.21 | 17.4% | 16.3% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 8.04 | 11.3% | 8.3% | -3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.1 pts
Projected Score
Neftchi 2–0 Surkhon
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Neftchi
Probability
75.5%
Model confidence
75.5%
Neftchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NeftchiLWLWW
GF 14 · GA 10 · avg 2.80/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
SurkhonWDDLL
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
NeftchiSurkhon
78.3Attack28.3
73.3Defence56.7
75.0Form38.3
73.3Power43.8
2.27xG0.38