Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Neftchi are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Pakhtakor are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Neftchi hold a 13.3-point power-rating edge (81.7 v 68.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.7% in the Super League, while Neftchi holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Neftchi
Probability
54.7%
Model confidence
54.7%
Neftchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20