Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Neftchi 2-4 Lokomotiv
Original prediction
Neftchi
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 09:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.53 | 58.8% | 44.3% | -14.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 23.3% | 26.2% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 5.05 | 17.9% | 29.5% | 11.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Neftchi
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Neftchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NeftchiWLDWW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LokomotivDWLWW
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
NeftchiLokomotiv
33.3Attack33.3
100.0Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
80.3Power80.3
1.66xG1.42