Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bars · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Neftchi are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Bars are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Bars hold a 21.6-point power-rating edge (44.0 v 65.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 59.5% in the Premier League, while Bars holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 70% BTTS chance and 75% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bars
Probability
59.5%
Model confidence
59.5%
Bars has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60