Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Neftchi are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Arkadag are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Neftchi hold a 16.1-point power-rating edge (61.5 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.8% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Neftchi holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Neftchi
Probability
51.7%
Model confidence
12.8%
Neftchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40