Neftchivs
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
COMPLETEDWorld · AFC Champions League Elite · 9/14/2026, 1:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Neftchi 1-0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Original prediction
Neftchi
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.53 | 60.1% | 41.6% | -18.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 23.9% | 27.3% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 5.76 | 16.0% | 31.1% | 15.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.53 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Neftchi
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Neftchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40