Neftchi Bakuvs
Safa Baku
COMPLETEDAzerbaijan · Premyer Liqa · 9/5/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi Baku · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Neftchi Baku 4-1 Safa Baku
Original prediction
Neftchi Baku
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.22 | 74.2% | 47.2% | -26.9 pts |
| Draw | 5.17 | 17.5% | 27.0% | 9.4 pts |
| Away | 10.93 | 8.3% | 25.8% | 17.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-26.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Neftchi Baku
Probability
47.2%
Model confidence
47.2%
Neftchi Baku has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00