UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League
Wednesday, 22 July 2026Last updated 12:43
Neftchi Baku

Neftchi Baku

Home
W
24
Full time
Dinamo Minsk

Dinamo Minsk

Away
WL
Neftçi Arena
GoalVio prediction
46% confidence
Neftchi Baku(29%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Neftchi Baku
29%
Draw
24%
Dinamo Minsk
46%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Neftchi Baku
94
Dinamo Minsk
18
Defence
Neftchi Baku
91
Dinamo Minsk
82
Momentum
Neftchi Baku
100
Dinamo Minsk
50
Danger (xG)
Neftchi Baku
2.70
Dinamo Minsk
0.45
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Neftchi Baku)
2.70
avg per match
xG for (Dinamo Minsk)
0.45
avg per match
xG against (Neftchi Baku)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Dinamo Minsk)
0.45
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku
WW
Dinamo MinskDinamo Minsk
WLWDW

Probability breakdown

46% confidence
Neftchi Baku29%
Draw24%
Dinamo Minsk46%

Dinamo Minsk leads with 46% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Neftchi Baku head into this in UEFA Europa Conference League fixture at Neftçi Arena in mixed form (W), while Dinamo Minsk arrive in mixed form (WL). Neftchi Baku have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 50% for Dinamo Minsk over 2 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Neftchi Baku (91/100) and Dinamo Minsk (82/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Neftchi Baku have limited home data in the engine at this stage. Dinamo Minsk have been excellent on the road, winning all 3 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 2.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between Neftchi Baku and Dinamo Minsk in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Neftchi Baku to win with 46% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Neftchi Baku 2923%, Draw 2430%, Dinamo Minsk 4647%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Neftchi Baku

Neftchi Baku

W
@ Radnicki NIS
10 Jul 2026
30
W
@ Sabah FA
17 May 2026
21
Dinamo Minsk

Dinamo Minsk

W
@ Sileks
16 Jul 2026
10
L
vs Sileks
9 Jul 2026
01
W
@ FC Minsk
2 Jul 2026
30
D
vs FC Vitebsk
27 Jun 2026
11
W
@ Neman
21 Jun 2026
31

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk?

GoalVio's model predicts Neftchi Baku to win with 46% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more