Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (9%), 1-4 (9%), 0-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Necaxa W 0-4 Toluca W
Original prediction
Toluca W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 22.84 | 4.1% | 9.0% | 4.9 pts |
| Draw | 12.86 | 7.2% | 11.3% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 1.05 | 88.7% | 79.7% | -8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–39%
- 2.1–49%
- 3.0–38%
Predicted outcome
Toluca W
Probability
79.7%
Model confidence
79.7%
Toluca W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Necaxa WLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 24 · avg 0.20/4.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Toluca WLWLWW
GF 12 · GA 13 · avg 2.40/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Necaxa WToluca W
12.5Attack79.2
0.0Defence37.5
0.0Form66.7
7.0Power59.1
1.18xG3.87