Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Necaxa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Necaxa 0-1 Puebla
Original prediction
Necaxa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 46.4% | 37.5% | -8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.6% | 25.4% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.43 | 27.0% | 37.1% | 10.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Necaxa
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Necaxa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NecaxaDLDLW
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
PueblaLWWLL
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
NecaxaPuebla
42.9Attack50.0
42.9Defence50.0
38.1Form55.6
44.3Power54.9
1.38xG1.54