Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Necaxa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Necaxa are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Leon are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Necaxa hold a 15.2-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 43.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.8% in the Liga MX, while Necaxa holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Necaxa
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
12.8%
Necaxa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00