Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Necaxa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Necaxa 1-1 FC Juarez
Original prediction
Necaxa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 54.3% | 48.0% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 24.6% | 26.8% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 4.41 | 21.1% | 25.1% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.79 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Necaxa
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
Necaxa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NecaxaLLDLL
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FC JuarezLLDLW
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NecaxaFC Juarez
38.5Attack20.5
33.3Defence17.9
23.1Form10.3
35.0Power19.7
2.09xG0.95