Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Necaxa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Necaxa 1-3 Cruz Azul
Original prediction
Necaxa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.40 | 27.4% | 40.0% | 12.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.8% | 24.7% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 1.99 | 46.8% | 35.3% | -11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Necaxa
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Necaxa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NecaxaDLWLL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Cruz AzulLLLWW
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NecaxaCruz Azul
46.7Attack53.3
46.7Defence33.3
46.7Form40.0
49.7Power45.3
1.81xG1.42