Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Necaxa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Necaxa are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Cruz Azul are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Cruz Azul hold a 3.7-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 62.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.8% in the Liga MX, while Necaxa holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Necaxa
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
10.8%
Necaxa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40