Necaxavs
Club America
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 9/28/2026, 3:10:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Club America · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Necaxa 2-4 Club America
Original prediction
Club America
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 06:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.51 | 26.5% | 16.8% | -9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.3% | 20.3% | -6.0 pts |
| Away | 1.97 | 47.2% | 62.9% | 15.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.97 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Club America
Probability
62.9%
Model confidence
62.9%
Club America has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80