Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atlas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Necaxa 0-2 Atlas
Original prediction
Atlas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.69 | 34.8% | 30.4% | -4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.8% | 21.5% | -5.3 pts |
| Away | 2.44 | 38.4% | 48.1% | 9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Atlas
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Atlas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NecaxaDLLLD
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
AtlasDWDLD
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 2/5
NecaxaAtlas
45.5Attack51.5
30.3Defence45.5
27.3Form54.5
37.6Power53.1
1.52xG2.08