Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: NEC 0-0 URA, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
NEC 4-1 URA
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 44.0% | 37.6% | -6.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.81 | 31.6% | 32.5% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.64 | 24.4% | 29.9% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Projected Score
NEC 0–0 URA
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.5%
Model confidence
37.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NECDWWLL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
URALWWDD
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NECURA
40.2Attack34.5
60.9Defence69.0
55.2Form46.0
53.6Power51.4
0.81xG0.73