Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NEC · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: NEC 2-0 Ntugasaze, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
NEC 5-1 Ntugasaze
Original prediction
NEC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 12:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.22 | 72.9% | 71.6% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.84 | 18.5% | 18.1% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 10.39 | 8.6% | 10.3% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Projected Score
NEC 2–0 Ntugasaze
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
NEC
Probability
71.6%
Model confidence
71.6%
NEC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NECLWDWD
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NtugasazeLWLLL
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
NECNtugasaze
57.1Attack16.7
81.0Defence27.8
66.7Form16.7
68.5Power25.0
2.29xG0.44