Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NEC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
NEC 3-1 Lugazi
Original prediction
NEC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 55.6% | 42.6% | -13.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.4% | 28.8% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 5.94 | 15.0% | 28.6% | 13.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
NEC
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
NEC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NECNo completed matches
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
BTTS 0/0O2.5 0/0
LugaziNo completed matches
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
BTTS 0/0O2.5 0/0
NECLugazi
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24