Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NEC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: NEC 1-0 Express, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
NEC 0-0 Express
Original prediction
NEC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.41 | 63.3% | 55.3% | -8.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.4% | 26.4% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 7.20 | 12.4% | 18.3% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.65 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.0 pts
Projected Score
NEC 1–0 Express
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
NEC
Probability
55.3%
Model confidence
55.3%
NEC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NECWDWWL
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ExpressDLWLL
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
NECExpress
75.0Attack25.0
83.3Defence66.7
83.3Form33.3
80.7Power43.3
1.49xG0.60