NEC Nijmegenvs
Levski Sofia
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/15/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NEC Nijmegen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Levski Sofia
Original prediction
NEC Nijmegen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 06:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 50.2% | 39.4% | -10.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 25.9% | 27.7% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.96 | 24.0% | 32.9% | 9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.67 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
NEC Nijmegen
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
NEC Nijmegen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00