NEC Nijmegenvs
Groningen
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 10/25/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Groningen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-3 (6%), 1-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Groningen
Original prediction
Groningen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 42.3% | 38.7% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.80 | 24.7% | 19.9% | -4.8 pts |
| Away | 2.84 | 33.0% | 41.4% | 8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.80 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–36%
- 3.1–26%
Predicted outcome
Groningen
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Groningen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80