NEC Nijmegenvs
Fortuna Sittard
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 10/18/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NEC Nijmegen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Fortuna Sittard
Original prediction
NEC Nijmegen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 56.0% | 46.0% | -10.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.18 | 22.5% | 21.3% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 4.37 | 21.5% | 32.7% | 11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.18 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
NEC Nijmegen
Probability
46.0%
Model confidence
46.0%
NEC Nijmegen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80