NEC Nijmegenvs
Excelsior
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 9/8/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NEC Nijmegen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Excelsior
Original prediction
NEC Nijmegen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 59.0% | 38.3% | -20.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.26 | 22.1% | 23.5% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 4.96 | 18.9% | 38.2% | 19.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.26 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
NEC Nijmegen
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
NEC Nijmegen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80