Nea Salamisvs
AEK Larnaca
COMPLETEDCyprus · 1. Division · 9/6/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AEK Larnaca · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nea Salamis 1-4 AEK Larnaca
Original prediction
AEK Larnaca
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.17 | 17.7% | 21.4% | 3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.7% | 26.2% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 1.59 | 57.6% | 52.4% | -5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
AEK Larnaca
Probability
52.4%
Model confidence
52.4%
AEK Larnaca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00